Complex systems: approaches to population by Studies Carl P. Simon
Founded center for the study of complex systems in 1999, and was CEO for 10 years
systems thinking: composed of interdependent and interacting components. Ignoring them leads to undesired consequences.
An example of DDT and natural systems. Not worrying about the ramification of the system.
Health Systems: mistake of using the strongest medications. Drug-resistant bacteria and viruses are an example of health systems. IE an arms race with bacteria, more people died from bacteria than from HIV. Careless use of medication. Also anti-bacterial soaps: promulgating helpful and resistant bacteria.
Man-made demographic solutions: widen the road when too much traffic...urban decay.
HOW TO APPROACH A SYSTEM:
Identify variables, draw diagrams, build a model
MODELS: dynamics, the framework for data collection, estimate, parameters,experiments, comparison, assumptions, forecasts.
K.I.S.S. Principle Keep it simple stupid.
simple systems:
put down components and check the spread. Check connections
Disease Spread:
build equations and variables
complex sustems:
Useful for when there is a rugged landscape without a clear path
Adding complexity line upon line to add realism and fact.
how to build feedback and learning into a model:
build a rule:
each rule has its specificity=strength
increase strength as the rule works
tax the rules to see if some are less useful
Realism:
mutation and crossover of rules allow to adjust and check for new scenarios.
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